A Model for the Risk of Microcephaly Induced by the Zika Virus (ZIKV)

Abstract

It has been introduced and analyzed a mathematical model based on integral equations, which turns into a dynamical system of non-linear differential equations to account for the risk of mi-crocephaly incidence caused by the Zika virus. A specific pregnant women susceptible group has been accounted for. The epidemic threshold (basic reproduction number) has been obtained by implementing the next generation matrix method. A sensitivity analysis with respect to each pa-rameter has been applied to that threshold. Finally, the incidence to the exposure is obtained by performing several system simulations.