Modeling Multiple Dam Breaks: A Case Study on the Hypothetical Failure of Adhaim and Makhool Dams

Abstract

This study examines the hypothetical consequences of the simultaneous failure of the Adhaim and Makhool dams in Iraq, focusing on the hydrological and socio-economic impacts. Advanced hydrodynamic modeling is used to simulate flood behavior, including the extent of inundation, the flood wave movement, and the timing of peak discharges downstream. The analysis considers the dam structural features, breach sizes, and downstream terrain. Simulation results indicate that serious consequences are likely, with heavy flooding posing a threat to urban areas, farmland, and critical infrastructure. These findings emphasize the urgent need for comprehensive risk assessments, effective emergency planning, and strategic mitigation efforts. The study provides insights for enhancing the dam safety and disaster resilience in hydraulically interconnected regions. It identifies critical zones of inundation, maximum flood depths, arrival times, and flood durations along the river corridor and across the floodplain. These findings highlight the greater hazard posed by the cascading dam failures compared to a single dam break. Additionally, the analysis underscores the importance of early warning systems and emergency preparedness. The outcomes provide valuable guidance for risk assessment, mitigation planning, and decision-making related to the dam safety and disaster management in the region.