Forecasting the readiness of special vehicles using the semi-Markov model

Abstract

The vehicle exploitation system, consisting of statistically identical objects that perform intervention tasks, not subject to systematic changes, can be modelled as a stationary stochastic process. Such a model allows to determine the probabilistic indicators of current and boundary readiness of the system. This article presents the use of the semi-Markov process, based on three operating states: operation, ready-to-be-used and repair, to study a transport system consisting of special vehicles. On the example of a sample consisting of police patrol cars, experimental studies of the intensity of fleet utilization, time of failure-free operation of vehicles were carried out, and it was demonstrated that the examined transport system is characterized by a satisfactory, stationary readiness coefficient. The developmental possibilities of the presented modelling method were emphasized.