A Spatial-Contextual Indoor Trajectory Prediction Approach via Hidden Markov Models

Abstract

Unlike outdoor trajectory prediction that has been studied many years, predicting the movement of a large number of users in indoor space like shopping mall has just been a hot and challenging issue due to the ubiquitous emerging of mobile devices and free Wi-Fi services in shopping centers in recent years. Aimed at solving the indoor trajectory prediction problem, in this paper, a hybrid method based on Hidden Markov approach is proposed. The proposed approach clusters Wi-Fi access points according to their similarities first; then, a frequent subtrajectory based HMM which captures the moving patterns of users has been investigated. In addition, we assume that a customer's visiting history has certain patterns; thus, we integrate trajectory prediction with shop category prediction into a unified framework which further improves the predicting ability. Comprehensive performance evaluation using a large-scale real dataset collected between September 2012 and October 2013 from over 120,000 anonymized, opt-in consumers in a large shopping center in Sydney was conducted; the experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the traditional HMM and perform well enough to be usable in practice.