Learning curve analysis of concentrated photovoltaic systems

Abstract

Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This paper presents a current and complete set of data on CPV systems prices and deployment volumes, providing a substantiated picture of the progress made in this field. It uses a learning curve approach to analyze the rate of CPV system price decline as a function of cumulative deployment, and finds it to be faster than corresponding published rates for PV and CSP. Key conclusions include that CPV can achieve a 1 $/W price target with 7900 MW of deployment. © 2014 The Authors. Price declines and volume growth of concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) systems are analysed using the learning curve methodology and compared with other forms of solar electricity generation. Logarithmic regression analysis determines a learning rate of 18% for CPV systems with 90% confidence of that rate being between 14 and 22%, which is higher than the learning rates of other solar generation systems (11% for CSP and 12 to 14% for PV). Current CPV system prices are competitive with PV and CSP, which, when combined with the higher learning rate, indicates that CPV is likely to further improve its marketability. A target price of 1 $/W in 2020 could be achieved with a compound growth rate of 67% for the total deployed volume between 2014 and 2020, which would realize a cumulative deployed volume of 7900 MW. Other projections of deployment volumes from commercial sources are converted using the learning rate into future price scenarios, resulting in predicted prices in the range of 1.1 to 1.3 $/W in 2020.