Risk Analysis and Simulation of Large Bridge Construction Based on System Dynamics

Abstract

To reduce risk incidents in large bridge construction, it is necessary to study the interaction mechanisms and dynamic changes among various risk factors during the construction of large bridges. First, the evolution mechanism of construction risks for large bridges is analyzed, and a risk factor structure system is established. Then, based on system dynamics theory, a causal loop diagram and flow–stock diagram are constructed, and system dynamics equations for each variable in the flow diagram are established to build a system dynamics model. Finally, taking a large bridge construction project as an example, the variable equations are assigned actual values, and the construction risk level is simulated and analyzed. The results show that, ➀ continuous investment in safety funds can effectively reduce the overall risk level of the system, ➁ changes in the management risk subsystem have a significant impact on the overall risk level of large bridge construction, and ➂ increasing the safety investment ratio in both the personnel risk subsystem and the management risk subsystem can effectively reduce the total risk level of the system.