Outlook of future climate in northwestern Ethiopia

Abstract

which is located between 8˚45′N and 13˚45′N lati- tude and 35˚46′E and 40˚25′E longitude. Daily climate data (1979-2008) of rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures were collected from 10 meteorological stations (predictand). The sta- tions were grouped and compared using clus- tering method and Markov chain model, whereas the degree of climate change in the study area was estimated using the coupled HadCM3 gen- eral circulation model (GCM) with A2a emission scenario (Predictor). Both maximum and mini- mum temperatures showed increasing trend; and the increase in mean maximum and minimum temperature ranges from 1.55˚C-6.07˚C and from 0.11°C-2.81°C, respectively in the 2080s com- pared to the base period considered (1979-2008). The amount of annual rainfall and number of rainy days also decreased in the study Regions in the 2080s. The negative changes in rainfall and temperature obtained from the HadCM3 model in the current study are alarming and suggest the need for further study with several GCM models to confirm the current results and develop adaptation options. Keywords: