ESD Ideas: Arctic amplification's contribution to breaches of the Paris Agreement

Abstract

The Arctic is warming at almost 4 times the global average rate. Here we reframe this amplified Arctic warming in terms of global climate ambition to show that without Arctic amplification, the world would breach the Paris Agreement's 1.5 and 2gC limits 5 and 8 years later, respectively. We also find the Arctic to be a disproportionate contributor to uncertainty in the timing of breaches. The outsized influence of Arctic warming on global climate targets highlights the need for better modelling and monitoring of Arctic change.