COVID-19 Prediction Models and Unexploited Data

Abstract

For COVID-19, predictive modeling, in the literature, uses broadly SEIR/SIR, agent-based, curve-fitting techniques/models. Besides, machine-learning models that are built on statistical tools/techniques are widely used. Predictions aim at making states and citizens aware of possible threats/consequences. However, for COVID-19 outbreak, state-of-the-art prediction models are failed to exploit crucial and unprecedented uncertainties/factors, such as a) hospital settings/capacity; b) test capacity/rate (on a daily basis); c) demographics; d) population density; e) vulnerable people; and f) income versus commodities (poverty). Depending on what factors are employed/considered in their models, predictions can be short-term and long-term. In this paper, we discuss how such continuous and unprecedented factors lead us to design complex models, rather than just relying on stochastic and/or discrete ones that are driven by randomly generated parameters. Further, it is a time to employ data-driven mathematically proved models that have the luxury to dynamically and automatically tune parameters over time.