LAND USE AND HABITAT QUALITY PREDICTION BASED ON MULTI-SCENARIO SIMULATION: A CASE STUDY OF JIAOZUO, CHINA

Abstract

To promote sustainable urban development, it is essential to assess the impacts of urban expansion on land-use change and habitat quality. Based on data from four periods of land use in Jiaozuo City (1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020), China, this study used the CA–Markov and InVEST models to create multi-scenario projections of land use in 2030, 2040 and 2050 and assess habitat quality status, respectively. The results showed that, from 1990 to 2020, construction land in Jiaozuo showed a trend of continuous expansion, with an increase of 57.75%, and areas of cultivated land, forested land, grassland, and water area showed a decreasing trend, with decreases of 5.34%, 9.75%, 10.37% and 33.42%, respectively. In the simulation of the three scenarios, Jiaozuo did not experience any major changes in land use in the next thirty years, and the habitat quality indices were, in descending order, the ecological priority scenario, the natural development scenario and the economic priority scenario. Predicting land-use changes and habitat quality is of great importance for the efficient utilization of land resources and habitat quality in Jiaozuo.