Quantifying the Excess Risk of Adverse COVID-19 Outcomes in Unvaccinated Individuals With Diabetes Mellitus, Hypertension, Ischaemic Heart Disease or Myocardial Injury: A Meta-Analysis

Abstract

Background: More than 80% of individuals in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) are unvaccinated against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In contrast, the greatest burden of cardiovascular disease is seen in LMIC populations. Hypertension (HTN), diabetes mellitus (DM), ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and myocardial injury have been variably associated with adverse COVID-19 outcomes. A systematic comparison of their impact on specific COVID-19 outcomes is lacking. We quantified the impact of DM, HTN, IHD and myocardial injury on six adverse COVID-19 outcomes: death, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), admission to intensive care (ITUadm), acute kidney injury (AKI) and severe COVID-19 disease (SCov), in an unvaccinated population. Methodology: We included studies published between 1st December 2019 and 16th July 2020 with extractable data on patients ≥18 years of age with suspected or confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Odds ratios (OR) for the association between DM, HTN, IHD and myocardial injury with each of six COVID-19 outcomes were measured. Results: We included 110 studies comprising 48,809 COVID-19 patients. Myocardial injury had the strongest association for all six adverse COVID-19 outcomes [death: OR 8.85 95% CI (8.08–9.68), ARDS: 5.70 (4.48–7.24), IMV: 3.42 (2.92–4.01), ITUadm: 4.85 (3.94–6.05), AKI: 10.49 (6.55–16.78), SCov: 5.10 (4.26–6.05)]. HTN and DM were also significantly associated with death, ARDS, ITUadm, AKI and SCov. There was substantial heterogeneity in the results, partly explained by differences in age, gender, geographical region and recruitment period. Conclusion: COVID-19 patients with myocardial injury are at substantially greater risk of death, severe disease and other adverse outcomes. Weaker, yet significant associations are present in patients with HTN, DM and IHD. Quantifying these associations is important for risk stratification, resource allocation and urgency in vaccinating these populations. Systematic Review Registration: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/, registration no: CRD42020201435 and CRD42020201443.