Impact of US Trade with China on Shareholders’ Wealth: Insights from Shipment Data in the COVID-19 Era

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of Chinese shipment volumes measured in TEUs on US stock performance in the initial stages of the COVID-19 outbreak. The analysis indicates that, initially, US stocks were negatively affected irrespective of firms’ trade engagements with China; however, as the global pandemic unfolded, companies with elevated imports from China exhibited more pronounced abnormal returns. The findings further reveal an increased influence of debt level and cash holdings on stock performance as the crisis intensified in Europe and the USA. These results highlight the evolving nature of global trade dynamics and their implications for financial markets amid global crises. Furthermore, this study provides valuable insights into the resilience of global supply chains during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic. The observed pattern, where companies with greater import volumes from China experienced better stock returns, underscores the importance of adaptable supply chains during disruptions.