Predicting Provincial Gross Domestic Product Using Satellite Data and Machine Learning Methods: A Case Study of Thailand

Abstract

This study introduced a new approach for monitoring regional development by applying satellite data with machine learning algorithms. Satellite data that represent physical features and environmental factors were obtained by developing a web-based application on the Google Earth Engine platform. Four machine learning methods were applied to the obtained geospatial data to predict provincial gross domestic product. The random forest method achieved the highest predictive performance, with 97.7% accuracy. The constructed random forest model was extended to conduct variable importance and minimal depth analyses, enabling the quantification of a factor’s influence on the prediction outcome. Variable importance and minimal depth analyses generated similar results, indicating that urban area and population are the most influential factors. Moreover, environmental and climate indicators exert medium-level effects. This study showed that integrating available satellite data and machine learning methods could be an alternative framework for facilitating a timely and costless monitoring system of regional development.