Analysis of factors of receptivity and vulnerability in the elaboration of risk model of attacks of vampire bats to bovines in the municipality of São Pedro - SP

Abstract

The vampire bat Desmodus rotundus is the main transmitter of the rabies of the domestic herbivores, causing enormous losses in the livestock of Latin America. Using a multi criteria criteria analysis model in the Geographic Information System (GIS), it was possible to integrate information and generate a map of areas of risk to D. rotundus attacks on cattle in the municipality of São Pedro - SP, which was validated with a map of attacks of D. rotundus occurred, and evaluated the relative importance of vulnerability and receptivity factors in the elaboration of a model of risk of attacks of vampire bats to cattle occurred in the municipality. The high and very high risk areas predicted by the model were located in large areas in the western and central-north portion of the municipality and in smaller areas in the southern portion, but the attacks focused only on the areas foreseen in the west and center- north, and also closer to the more crowded shelters located in these regions. The analysis of the vulnerability and receptivity factors in the validation of the risk model for attacks on cattle indicated that the distance from the shelters of vampire bats to the herds and the number of bats in these shelters seems to be more relevant in the definition of areas of attack than the density populations of existing domestic herbivores. The model is useful and can be used in epidemiological surveillance actions, concentrating its efforts in the most vulnerable areas, thus saving time and resources.