On the cointegration and causality between oil market, nuclear energy consumption, and economic growth: evidence from developed countries

Abstract

This study uses Johansen cointegration technique to examine both the equilibrium relationship and the causality between oil consumption, nuclear energy consumption, oil price and economic growth. To do so, four industrialized countries including the USA, Canada, Japan, and France are investigated over the period from 1965 to 2010. The cointegration test results suggest that the proposed variables tend to move together in the long run in all countries. In addition, the causal linkage between the variables is scrutinized through the exogeneity test. The results point that energy consumption (i.e., oil or nuclear) has either a predictive power for economic growth, or feedback impact with real GDP growth in all countries. Results suggest that oil consumption is not only a major factor of economic growth in all the investigated countries, it also has a predictive power for real GDP in the USA, Japan, and France. Precisely, increasing oil consumption by 1% increases the economic growth in Canada by 3.1%., where increasing nuclear energy consumption by 1% in Japan and France increases economic growth by 0.108 and 0.262%, respectively. Regarding nuclear energy consumption–growth nexus, results illustrate that nuclear energy consumption has a predictive power for real economic growth in the USA, Canada, and France. On the basis of speed of adjustment, it is concluded that there is bidirectional causality between oil consumption and economic growth in Canada. On the other hand, there is bidirectional causal relationship between nuclear energy consumption and real GDP growth in Japan.