Public opinion of the economy and the president among Mexico City residents: The Salinas Sexenio

Abstract

Because of the prominence of the president in the Mexican political system, public opinion of the executive is a particularly important political indicator. Two models of public opinion are used here to explain changes in President Carlos Salinas de Gortari's approval rate from 1990 to 1994. The economic-performance model assumes that approval was based on public perception of trends in the economy. The statistical analysis shows that individuals' perceptions of economic performance had a strong positive effect on their opinions of the president. But basic economic indicators such as inflation, the real value of wages, and the level of unemployment are found to explain only partially Mexico City residents' opinions of the economy. The policy-initiatives model assumes that approval of President Salinas was based on public opinion of his economic policy initiatives. Citizens' approval of Salinas's economic initiatives was found to affect their opinions of the president substantially. Because many of these policy initiatives, such as NAFTA, had no immediate direct impact on the economic condition of the country, I conclude that Salinas's extraordinary popularity was largely due to the expectations that these initiatives created.