Feedback of observed interannual vegetation change: a regional climate model analysis for the West African monsoon

Abstract

West Africa is a hot spot region for land–atmosphere coupling where atmospheric conditions and convective rainfall can strongly depend on surface characteristics. To investigate the effect of natural interannual vegetation changes on the West African monsoon precipitation, we implement satellite-derived dynamical datasets for vegetation fraction (VF), albedo and leaf area index into the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Two sets of 4-member ensembles with dynamic and static land surface description are used to extract vegetation-related changes in the interannual difference between August–September 2009 and 2010. The observed vegetation patterns retain a significant long-term memory of preceding rainfall patterns of at least 2 months. The interannual vegetation changes exhibit the strongest effect on latent heat fluxes and associated surface temperatures. We find a decrease (increase) of rainy hours over regions with higher (lower) VF during the day and the opposite during the night. The probability that maximum precipitation is shifted to nighttime (daytime) over higher (lower) VF is 12 % higher than by chance. We attribute this behaviour to horizontal circulations driven by differential heating. Over more vegetated regions, the divergence of moist air together with lower sensible heat fluxes hinders the initiation of deep convection during the day. During the night, mature convective systems cause an increase in the number of rainy hours over these regions. We identify this feedback in both water- and energy-limited regions of West Africa. The inclusion of observed dynamical surface information improved the spatial distribution of modelled rainfall in the Sahel with respect to observations, illustrating the potential of satellite data as a boundary constraint for atmospheric models.