Sub-catchment-based urban flood risk assessment with a multi-index fuzzy evaluation approach: a case study of Jinjiang district, China

Abstract

Urban flood risk assessment requires attention in inland areas with intensifying climate change and an increasing probability of extreme precipitation. This study describes the developments and testing of a sub-catchment-based multi-index fuzzy evaluation approach that can provide adaptation guidance for municipal decision-makers at a local level. We first built a comprehensive flood risk assessment system considering three categories: hazard, urban system, and social environment. The proposed evaluation system includes hybrid uncertain information that involves random indicator sources and hesitant fuzzy judgments from experts. The storm weather management model combined with geographic information system tools was then applied to obtain random indicators. Subsequently, hesitant fuzzy linguistic sets and the Euclidean distance method were adopted to solve the problem of uncertainty and vagueness from subjective hesitant information. Therefore, the aggregation method provides a beneficial way to assess flood risk in a hybrid uncertain environment. In addition, the proposed approach was applied to the Jinjiang district in an inland city in the P. R. of China. This supports efforts to prioritize locally tailored policies and practical measures for higher-risk sub-catchments within large urban systems.