Predicting extinction of mammals in the Brazilian Amazon

Abstract

Using the species-area correlation I predicted the percentage of endemic Amazonian mammals committed to extinction by 2020 as an outcome of deforestation resulting from the implementation of mega-infrastructure projects in the Brazilian Amazon. Simulations based on optimistic and non-optimistic deforestation scenarios showed a 2-fold and a 3-fold increase, respectively, in Amazonian mammals committed to extinction. The predicted number of threatened species by 2020 was 5-18% of the total number of endemic mammal species, depending on the scenario and equation used. This increase in extinction rates could be catastrophic for ecosystem stability in the Amazon because the loss of functional groups may produce a cascade effect of species extinctions. © 2005 FFI.