Earthquake Risk Assessment Using Integrated Influence Diagram-AHP Approach

Abstract

Indonesia is located at the joint situation of four major world tectonic plates in the Pacific Ring of Fire. Mostly, the coastal regions of Indonesia are highly prone to several natural hazards, such as tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcanic activity. The major earthquake incident in the country was the 2004 earthquake in Aceh, whereas a major volcanic eruption was the Mount Merapi volcanic eruption in 2010. With the present advancement of knowledge regarding the existing hazards, we acknowledge the importance of vulnerability and risk in monitoring and mitigating earthquake hazards. However, to date, a specific effort is unavailable for assessing the risk of earthquake hazards that will cover the city-level in Indonesia. Moreover, a comprehensive profile for risk assessment has yet to be created for small-scale urban areas. Few studies have been organized in Indonesia on city-scale risk assessment. Therefore, we attempt to fill this gap by calculating the risk percentage of Banda Aceh City by determining its conditioning factors and analyzing its variations spatially. We used an influence diagram approach and considered all the factors that affect the risk in Banda Aceh. Results show that only the central parts and some parts in the surrounding areas are under high risk compared with other locations. We validated the results using inventory earthquake events and the results of previously published articles.