Climate change and non-stationary population processes in fisheries management

Abstract

The potential influence of climate change on the future distribution and abundance of fish (and therefore commercial fisheries and food security) is increasingly recognized in the fishery management community. A changing climate will likely have differing effects on different species; some will flourish, some will flounder. Management targets for fishing mortality and spawning biomass are often calculated by assuming stationary population processes, but under climate change, this assumption may be violated. Non-stationary population processes can introduce bias into estimates of biomass from stock assessments and calculations of target fishing mortalities and biomasses. However, few accepted frameworks exist for incorporating the changing influence of the environment on exploited populations into management strategies. Identifying changes in population processes due to environmental influences is important in order to enable climate-enhanced management strategy evaluations to elucidate the potential benefits and costs of changing management targets. Cost/benefit analyses will also be useful when coincidentally caught species respond differently to environmental change.