How Complete Are Surveys for Nearby Transiting Hot Jupiters?

Abstract

Hot Jupiters are a rare and interesting outcome of planet formation. Although more than 500 hot Jupiters (HJs) are known, most of them were discovered by a heterogeneous collection of surveys with selection biases that are difficult to quantify. Currently, our best knowledge of HJ demographics around FGK stars comes from the sample of ≈40 objects detected by the Kepler mission, which have a well-quantified selection function. Using the Kepler results, we simulate the characteristics of the population of nearby transiting HJs. A comparison between the known sample of nearby HJs and simulated magnitude-limited samples leads to four conclusions. (1) The known sample of HJs appears to be ≈75% complete for stars brighter than Gaia G ≤ 10.5, falling to ≲50% for G ≤ 12. (2) There are probably a few undiscovered HJs with host stars brighter than G ≈ 10 located within 10° of the Galactic plane. (3) The period and radius distributions of HJs may differ for F-type hosts (which dominate the nearby sample) and G -type hosts (which dominate the Kepler sample). (4) To obtain a magnitude-limited sample of HJs that is larger than the Kepler sample by an order of magnitude, the limiting magnitude should be approximately G ≈ 12.5. This magnitude limit is within the range for which NASA’s Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite can easily detect HJs, presenting the opportunity to greatly expand our knowledge of hot-Jupiter demographics.