Immigration, Euroscepticism, and the rise and fall of UKIP

Abstract

This article presents a case study of the emergence of the issue-linkage necessary for a cross-cutting European Union cleavage to become electorally salient. We argue that a key political decision on immigration in 2004 facilitated the emergence of a new dimension of party competition and growth in popular support for the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) leading eventually to the 2016 EU Referendum. To examine this thesis, we trace the impact of the UK government’s immigration policy on (i) rising immigration, (ii) the political salience of immigration, (iii) the increasing association between concern about immigration and Euroscepticism, and (iv) the emergence of a cross-cutting dimension of party competition coalescing around support for UKIP. The analysis combines information from official immigration rates, media reporting on immigration, Mori polls, continuous monitoring surveys, and the British Election Study.