The paradox of measuring success of nations in elite sport

Abstract

The achievement of international and especially Olympic sporting success is increasingly Important to a growing number of countries. It is however not clear how success is defined and can be measured. The number of medals won in Olympics Games and other international sport competitions offers the most self-evident and transparent measure of success in high performance sport. In this article different methods to measure success of nations are compared. Market share was identified as the best measure of absolute success which enables meaningful time series analysis to be conducted. A Linear regression analysis is used to introduce relative success as a measurement of success when controlling for macro determinants such as population and wealth. This method allows comparing nations on more equal grounds, which is necessary if one wants to measure effectiveness of elite sport policies. Similar analysis is done for Olympic Summer and Winter Sports. It is concluded that conflicting results can be given on nations' success. Defining success therefore depends on the purpose wherefore it is used and on the priorities of individual nations.