Anti-Risk Ability of Government Purchasing Elderly Care Services under the Coordination of Complex Network and GERT

Abstract

Risk problems of government purchasing elderly care services occur frequently. In order to open the "black box"of decision-making regarding the risks, this study explores the anti-risk ability of government purchasing elderly care services from the perspective of complex network and graphical evaluation review technique (GERT). Firstly, network of government purchasing elderly care services is established, which consists of link level and level of risk factors. Secondly, GERT is employed to analyze the anti-risk ability of the link level of the policy. Then combined with complex network theory, propagation process of risks is simulated at the level of risk factors and anti-risk ability of the complex network consisting of risk factors is explored. Results show that the anti-risk ability of each link in government purchasing elderly care services is obtained, which provides the priority for managers to conduct the risk management. And compared with the ani-risk ability under the random risk attack and deliberate risk attack, the anti-risk ability under the risk attack based on links is obviously lower.