The Serbian Pension System in Transition: A Silent Break with Bismarck

Abstract

The pension system in Serbia was set up as Bismarckian earningsrelated system almost one hundred years ago. At the outset of the transition process at the beginning of 21st Century, the pension system underwent bold reforms. Despite suggestions from the World Bank to adopt a three-pillar system that would involve a break with the Bismarckian heritage, reforms concentrated on parametric adjustments that strengthened the link between previous earnings and pension benefits. However, as this paper shows, the Bismarckian earnings-related system has subsequently been silently challenged. On the basis of an analysis of the current and perspective replacement rates for various earning levels and pension variation indicators, we show how the contributions/ benefit link has been undermined. These policy changes have not been defined or understood as a new strategic course of action, nor have the strategic options been debated and analysed. These silent reforms have seemed to be a “quick and easy” solution to tackle high public expenditures and deficits without understanding their implications, and that breaking up with Bismarck implies significant transition costs.