Sector-Wise Optimal Energy Demand Forecasting for a Developing Country Using LEAP Software †

Abstract

Energy demand forecasting is a crucial activity in deciding the energy generation requirements of developing countries. Pakistan is one of the developing countries in South Asia. This paper presents an overview of the electric power sector structure of Pakistan with historical data and forecasts the energy demand of consumer groups in Pakistan till 2030 based on expected growth in the population and businesses. The proposed model is designed using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) software with two scenarios, which are business-as-usual and energy conservation. Implementation of these scenarios shows that the energy demand of Pakistan will rise three folds by 2030.