Forest fires in Portugal - Case study, 18 June 2017

Abstract

Forest fires that occurred in Portugal on 18 June 2017 caused several tens of human casualties. The cause of their emergence, as well as many others that occurred in Western Europe at the same time remained unknown. Taking into account consequences, including loss of human lives and endangerment of ecosystem sustainability, discovering of the forest fires causes is the very significant question. The heliocentric hypothesis has indirectly been tested, according to which charged particles are a possible cause of forest fires. We must point out that it was not possible to verify whether in this specific case the particles by reaching the ground and burning the plant mass create the initial phase of the formation of the flame. Therefore, we have tried to determine whether during the critical period, i.e. from 15-19 June there is a certain statistical connection between certain parameters of the solar wind and meteorological elements. Based on the hourly values of the charged particles flow, a correlation analysis was performed with hourly values of individual meteorological elements including time lag at Monte Real station. The application of the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System models has shown that there is a high degree of connection between the flow of protons and the analysed meteorological elements in Portugal. However, further verification of this hypothesis requires further laboratory testing.