Forty-seven year trend of measles in Iran: An interrupted time series analysis

Abstract

Background and Aim: Measles is an acute viral infectious disease usually characterized by erythematous maculopapular rash and sometimes pneumonia, diarrhea, and Central Nervous System disturbance. The current study aimed to describe the trend of measles in Iran before and after the 1978 revolution and COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: In the current quasi-experimental study, we used annual data on confirmed cases of measles in Iran, from 1974 to 2021. Data were extracted from the World Health Organization website. An interrupted time series model was used to assess the effect of different events on the incidence of measles. Results: The trend of new cases increase every year until 1980 according to the preintervention slope of 2040 (95% confidence interval [CI] = −1965–2045; p < 0.31). After Iran's revolution, the occurrence of new cases significantly decreased (−845 [95% CI = −1262 to −432; p = 0.001]). After the COVID-19 pandemic, the trend of new cases significantly increased (41 [95% CI = 12–70; p = 0.006]). Conclusion: It seems that social or health-related events are among the effective factors on the incidence of measles. But with maintaining vaccination coverage in the community and vaccination of immigrants, this fluctuation in the disease trend can be decreased.