Exportação Brasileira de papel e celulose: Sua dinâmica pela equação gravitacional

Abstract

Brazil is among the leading producers of wood pulp and paper and the Brazilian industry is globally competitive in this segment. With interest toward this scenario, this study applied the gravity equation, used to empirically explain trade flows between countries, to analyze the dynamics of wood pulp and paper exports from Brazil from 1997 to 2005. The gravity equation was modified and its explanatory variables were: Brazil's GDP, the GDP of the importing country, GDP per capita of the importing country and the distance from the importer country and Brazil. The results showed that distance negatively affected papel exports, but contrary to expectations, its associated coefficient had a positive value for wood pulp export. The GDP per capita of the importing countries positively contributed to wood pulp exports and it negatively contributed to paper exports. Brazil's GDP and the GDP of the importing countries as well had their associated coefficients with a positive value, as expected. It was concluded that the model succeeded in predicting the commercial bilateral flows of the analyzed commodities. Exports of paper and wood pulp as well, were more sensitive to changes in Brazil's GDP than to changes in GDP, GDP per capita and distance from importing countries. The distance negatively influences exports of paper, but not the Brazilian exports of wood pulp.