Imputing satellite-derived aerosol optical depth using a multi-resolution spatial model and random forest for PM2.5 prediction

Abstract

A task for environmental health research is to produce complete pollution exposure maps despite limited monitoring data. Satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) is frequently used as a predictor in various models to improve PM2.5 estimation, despite significant gaps in coverage. We analyze PM2.5 and AOD from July 2011 in the contiguous United States. We examine two methods to aid in gap-filling AOD: (1) lattice kriging, a spatial statistical method adapted to handle large amounts data, and (2) random forest, a tree-based machine learning method. First, we evaluate each model’s performance in the spatial prediction of AOD, and we additionally consider ensemble methods for combining the predictors. In order to accurately assess the predictive performance of these methods, we construct spatially clustered holdouts to mimic the observed patterns of missing data. Finally, we assess whether gap-filling AOD through one of the proposed ensemble methods can improve prediction of PM2.5 in a random forest model. Our results suggest that ensemble methods of combining lattice kriging and random forest can improve AOD gap-filling. Based on summary metrics of performance, PM2.5 predictions based on random forest models were largely similar regardless of the inclusion of gap-filled AOD, but there was some variability in daily model predictions.