Boulder transport and wave height of a seventeenth-century South China Sea tsunami on Penghu Islands, Taiwan

Abstract

The South China Sea faces widespread tsunami risks from diverse sources, including trench megathrusts, intraplate earthquakes, and landslides. However, historical and geological records to constrain worse-case simulations are scarce. The cliff-top basalt boulders on the Penghu Islands in the Taiwan Strait provide wave estimates from incipient motion formulas and stratigraphic links to the probable sources. Calibrating for ancient local sea levels and a 100-year surge indicates that storm waves in the shallow interisland bathymetry only enable boulder sliding-rolling below the 2.5gm high cliff. A minimum tsunami wave height of g1/4g3.2gm is necessary for cliff-top overflow to exceed boulder height and terminal rolling before deposition. Coeval gravels in two other outcrops also record the time and extent of tsunami deposition with beach-derived bioclasts, stranded pumices, a sharp base, matrix support, poor sorting, and elevations surpassing the 100-year surge. These gravels mark local minimum wave run-ups, reaching 2.4-4.0gm above sea level. The radiocarbon age of the studied boulder, between 1575 and 1706, suggests a probable tie to the disastrous 1661 earthquake in southwest Taiwan and the megathrust source in the northern Manila Trench.