Analysing spatial patterns of climate change: Climate clusters, hotspots and analogues to support climate risk assessment and communication in Germany

Abstract

The spatial visualization of current and future climate conditions is one key component for assessing related impacts and risks in a given territory. A suitable combination of statistical methods and visualisation techniques allows the creation of outputs that support the interpretation and understanding as well as communication of the complex climate analysis to a wider target audience. The present paper describes the adopted approaches to portray information about climate change in Germany until the end of the 21st century in meaningful maps with the aim to communicate it to the public as well as decision makers. In particular, the conducted analyses focused on the assessment of climate regions, climate hotspots and climate analogues. The maps showing the resulting spatial patterns 1) divide the country in seven climate clusters, 2) reveal different hotspot areas of climate change in terms of key indicators for the middle and the end of the century and 3) provide current and future climate shifts of German cities to analogue regions in Europe. Results are accompanied with recommendations and interpretation aids supporting the correct use for practical applications and communication purposes. The final map products resulting from these analyses and published in the frame of the Climate Impact and Risk Assessment for Germany 2021 were taken up by different national media outlets (print and audio), education experts as well as stakeholders, showing benefits and limitations of the visualisation choices.