Population dynamics in the face of climate change: Analysis of a cubic thermal performance curve in ectotherms

Abstract

The objective of this study is to perform an analysis on the effect of the increase in temperature under the context of climate change on the dynamics of a population of ectothermic organisms, which are highly susceptible to these changes, as their body temperatures depend crucially on the environmental temperature. In our modelling approach, population abundance is governed by a logistic growth, where the intrinsic growth rate is affected by the change in temperature. The relationship between environmental temperature and the intrinsic rate of increase will be represented by a thermal performance curve type. In order to facilitate analytical simplicity but also novelty, a cubic expression is proposed to represent the thermal performance curve, the intensity of intraspecific competition is considered to remain constant and the tendency of temperature increase follows a linear expression. Finally, consequences on the trends of population abundance curves are assessed.