NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Radiation Advisories for the International Civil Aviation Organization

Abstract

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA/SWPC) issues several solar radiation storm products: the long standing proton Warnings and Alerts that are based on particle intensity levels observed by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites; and the more recent International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) radiation advisories which specify effective dose rates at aviation flight levels. SWPC ICAO advisories are supported by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) CARI-7A model. In this paper we use CARI-7A modeling results for the Ground Level Enhancement 69 (GLE69) solar radiation storm which occurred on the 20th of January 2005 to demonstrate the ICAO advisory format. For the onset and peak of GLE69, we find that a severe (SEV) radiation advisory would have been issued for altitudes above 32,000 ft, for polar and mid latitude regions of the northern and southern hemisphere. At lower altitudes, down to 25,000 ft, the moderate (MOD) radiation threshold would have been exceeded. In total, 10 ICAO radiation advisories would have been issued over 6.5 hr. From the retrospective modeling of GLE69, and feedback from users, we identify ways in which the ICAO advisories should be improved.