Modeling and imaging land-cover influences on air temperature in and near Baltimore, MD

Abstract

Over the course of 1681 hours between May 5 and September 30, 2006, air temperatures measured at the 1.5-m height at seven sites in and near the city of Baltimore, MD were used to empirically model Δ (Formula presented.) R-p, the difference in air temperature between a site in downtown Baltimore and the six other sites. Variables in the prediction equation included difference between the downtown reference and each of the other sites in upwind tree cover and impervious cover as obtained from 10-m resolution geographic information system (GIS) data. Other predictor variables included an index of atmospheric stability, topographic indices, wind speed, vapor pressure deficit, and antecedent precipitation. The model was used to map predicted hourly Δ (Formula presented.) R-p across the Baltimore region based on hourly weather data from the airport. Despite the numerous sources of variability in the regression modeling, the method produced reasonable map patterns of Δ (Formula presented.) R-p that, except for some areas evidently affected by sea breeze from the Chesapeake, closely matched results of mesoscale modeling. Potential applications include predictions of the effect of changing tree cover on air temperature in the area.