Data Filling of Micrometeorological Variables in Complex Terrain for High-Resolution Nowcasting

Abstract

In this paper, two different computationally inexpensive methods for nowcasting/data filling spatially varying meteorological variables (wind velocity components, specific humidity, and virtual potential temperature) covering scales ranging from 100 m to 5 km in regions marked by complex terrain are compared. Multivariable linear regression and artificial neural networks are used to predict micrometeorological variables at eight locations using the measurements from three nearby weather stations. The models are trained using data gathered from a system of eleven low-cost automated weather stations that were deployed in the Cadarache Valley of southeastern France from December 2016 to June 2017. The models are tested on two held-out periods of measurements of thermally-driven flow and synoptically forced flow. It is found that the models have statistically significant performance differences for the wind components during the synoptically driven flow period (p = 6.6 × 10−3 and p = 2.0 × 10−2 for U and V, respectively), but perform the same otherwise. These methods can be used to spatially fill gaps in micrometeorological datasets. Recommended future work should include statistically interpreting the predictive models and testing their capabilities on meteorological datasets from different locations.