Crisis and Change in Post-Zeitenwende German Security Policy

Abstract

This article examines the nexus between crisis and change in the context of German security policy after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s announcement of a Zeitenwende (historic turning point) on 27 February 2022, a few days after the Russian attack, suggests a substantial change in German foreign and security policy. Germany’s reorientation has renewed the debate about change and continuity in German foreign and security policy (notably regarding antimilitarism). Particularly prominent in the discourse is the notion of crisis, which this paper specifically focuses on. We ask first, at a theoretical level, how we can best understand the conceptual nexus between crisis and foreign policy change and second, empirically, how crisis and change are connected in the specific case of the German Zeitenwende. In the attempt to analyze the link between crisis and foreign policy change, we propose that understanding how once-unthinkable policies are made possible requires that we turn our attention to dynamics of discursive change. We illustrate the argument with a mixed-methods analysis of German parliamentary debates between 1987 and 2023.