Factors Influencing Flood Risk Management Integration in U.S. Municipal Planning: An Expert Mental Model Approach

Abstract

An expert mental model (EMM) explores how U.S. municipalities integrate flood risk management (FRM) into urban planning, offering insights beyond existing literature. Motivated by the challenges urban planners face in balancing flood risk with competing priorities like development, housing, and economic growth, this study combines a literature review, expert interviews, and model analysis to map the influences shaping FRM integration. The EMM highlights an interplay between external (physical risks, societal support, funding), institutional (political will, resources), and process influences (data, collaboration). The model brings forward perception and value influences, individual biases, and shared municipal values, showing how these shape FRM integration alongside technical and institutional factors commonly emphasized in FRM planning literature. External pressures, existing practices, political realities, and internal capabilities all influence urban planners. The model reveals power asymmetry between plan developers and decision-makers, the limits of technical tools once planning moves beyond analysis, and the strong influence of federal and state guidance, funding, regulations, capacity, partnerships, and physical drivers. By considering institutional, cognitive, and political influences, municipalities can develop more resilient FRM strategies. This approach offers a framework for understanding barriers to FRM integration and can be adapted for use in different municipal contexts.