Windstorm Extremes in a Warmer World: Raising the Bar for Destruction

Abstract

Extratropical cyclones occasionally escalate into devastating windstorms in Western Europe, causing damages worth billions of euros. However, their response to anthropogenic climate change remains uncertain, primarily due to limitations of coarse-resolution models. This study adopts a high-resolution, event-based approach to examine how climate change may enhance Cyclone Anatol (December 1999), using the 2 km HARMONIE-AROME model within a Pseudo Global Warming (PGW) framework. Results reveal that elevated temperatures amplify wind extremes, both in magnitude and spatial extent, over Denmark and the North Sea, which are linked to increased latent heat release which drives mesoscale instabilities. The findings highlight the potential for even more destructive windstorms in future climates, emphasizing the importance of high-resolution modeling for understanding these dynamics. While this study does not address changes in cyclone frequency, it underscores the heightened risk of extreme windstorms in a warming world and their implications for disaster preparedness and mitigation strategies.