A Climate-Informed Scenario Generation Method for Stochastic Planning of Hybrid Hydro–Wind–Solar Power Systems in Data-Scarce Regions

Abstract

The high penetration rate of renewable energy poses significant challenges to the planning and operation of power systems in regions with scarce data. In these regions, it is impossible to accurately simulate the complex nonlinear dependencies among hydro–wind–solar energy resources, which leads to huge operational risks and investment uncertainties. To bridge this gap, this study proposes a new data-driven framework that embeds the natural climate cycle (24 solar terms) into a physically consistent scenario generation process, surpassing the traditional linear approach. This framework introduces the Comprehensive Similarity Distance (CSD) indicator to quantify the curve similarity of power amplitude, pattern trend, and fluctuation position, thereby improving the K-means clustering. Compared with the K-means algorithm based on the standard Euclidean distance, the accuracy of the improved clustering pattern extraction is increased by 3.8%. By embedding the natural climate cycle and employing a two-stage dimensionality reduction architecture: time compression via improved clustering and feature fusion via Kernel PCA, the framework effectively captures cross-source dependencies and preserves climatic periodicity. Finally, combined with the simplified Vine Copula model, high-fidelity joint scenarios with a normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of less than 3% can be generated. This study provides a reliable and computationally feasible tool for stochastic optimization and reliability analysis in the planning and operation of future power systems with high renewable energy grid integration.