A simulation study of the use of temporal occupancy for identifying core and transient species

Abstract

Transient species, which do not maintain self-sustaining populations in a system where they are observed, are ubiquitous in nature and their presence often impacts the interpretation of ecological patterns and processes. Identifying transient species from temporal occupancy, the proportion of time a species is observed at a given site over a time series, is subject to classification errors as a result of imperfect detection and source-sink dynamics. We use a simulation-based approach to assess how often errors in detection or classification occur in order to validate the use of temporal occupancy as a metric for inferring whether a species is a core or transient member of a community. We found that low detection increases error in the classification of core species, while high habitat heterogeneity and high detection increase error in classification of transient species. These findings confirm that temporal occupancy is a valid metric for inferring whether a species can maintain a self-sustaining population, but imperfect detection, low abundance, and highly heterogeneous landscapes may yield high misclassification rates.