Analysis and prediction of land cover change in upstream Citarum watershed

Abstract

Land cover is one of factors which is important in watershed management. The changes of land cover in a watershed can affect on the hydrology abstraction. Land cover of upstream Citarum watershed is potentially changes. Economy, social, and population are factors that affect the change in land cover. The aim of this research were to analyze spatial change of land cover in upstream Citarum watershed period 2006-2014 with consideration of agricultural land types and predicting future land cover of 2030 as usual and applying a policy to conserve paddy field and forest. Analysis was carried out applying Cellular automata markov chain of land cover spatial model. The result showed that Kappa for image classification was 0.89. Dominant land cover type in upstream Citarum watershed was paddy field of 24.74 – 26.06%. The land cover changes approximately between 1-10% with conversion of paddy field to built up area is the dominant change. Model validation of 2014 predicted land cover was 0.947, while Kappa for optimum iteration of 3 was 0.949. The land cover for period 2006-2030 was change approximately 1-10%. The types of land cover that increase in 2030 were built up area and bareland of 10.06% and 0.1%, respectively, while secondary forest, plantation forest, mixed farming, moor, and paddy field were decreasing approximately 0.4, 0.9, 1.2, 10 and 0.1%. Mixed farming and moor have slightly decrease under protection of paddy field and forest scenario compared to prediction results of 2030 BAU, approximately 1.4 and 1.0% than 1.7 and 7.3%