Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions analysis in Colombia: A LEAP model application

Abstract

Colombia represents that group of developing countries that is facing new challenges in energy demand due to climatic phenomena, technological changes and the growing use of renewable energy. This article presents a joint research work between the Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética - UPME (In Spanish) and the University of Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano to analyze the energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions produced in Colombia. The study was conducted using the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) software, through the construction of a model based on the year 2015 and with two future scenarios (positive and negative). The LEAP model is extrapolated until the years 2030 and 2050 to obtain the future predictions of the country's economic sectors: tertiary sector, industrial sector, housing sector and transport sector. The negative scenario is characterized by low economic growth and few incentives for technological change, which translates into low growth in energy efficiency, as well as a low substitution of petroleum-based energy. In contrast, in the positive scenario the economic growth of the sectors is greater and the technological substitution is accelerated which allows higher efficiency levels in the final use of energy and a greater migration towards cleaner technologies.