Migrants’ remittances and economic growth in Egypt: an empirical analysis from 1980 to 2017

Abstract

Purpose: Migrants’ remittances to Egypt have increased considerably in both size and importance over the past 40 years. This increase has made Egypt one of the top remittance recipients in the world and the leading recipient country in the Middle East. As migrant remittances are one of Egypt's main sources of foreign capital, this study aims to identify the impact of these remittances on economic growth. Design/methodology/approach: The study collects annual data on migrant remittances sent to Egypt during the period 1980–2017. The study uses the Augmented Dickey–Fuller test and Johnsen's Co-integration test to establish long-run relationships between variables. Then, a vector error correction model (VECM) is used to combine long-run and short-run dynamics, and a Granger causality test is performed. Finally, diagnostic tests of the VECM are conducted. Findings: Results reveal that migrants’ remittances to Egypt are countercyclical in the sense that they have a long-term negative impact on economic growth. These results are determined by the Granger causality between migrants' remittances, inflation rate and imports. Practical implications: The study can help policymakers to develop appropriate policies to turn migrants' remittances into a reliable source of capital that could result in a stable economic growth. Originality/value: Although various empirical studies have examined the growth effect of remittances, most of them are based on cross-country data. This study contributes to the field by attempting to close a gap in the literature by empirically analyzing the impact of remittances on a single country over a long period.