A rule-based approach to classify counterpressing–analysis of its risks and relationship with rest defence

Abstract

The Defensive Transition moment in football was analysed using data from all 380 matches in the 2020/21 English Premier League Season, which encompassed 12,460 possession sequences in the final dataset. Defensive Transition can be assessed by measuring counterpressure success against instances of shot and territory (counter-attack) concession. Following practitioner consultation, a Rest Defence variable was defined using a rules-based approach and its relationship with counter-attack vulnerability and counterpressing were examined. The number of players occupying the Rest Defence zone was found to have a significant relationship with shot concession (p < 0.05) and territory concession (p < 0.001) following possession loss in the opposition’s final third. However, contrasting prior practitioner belief, there was no significant relationship between Rest Defence organisation and counterpress initiation (p = 0.11). When teams adopt a counterpressing strategy, there was not a significant concession of shots (X2 = 2.74; p = 0.1) but there was significant territory conceded (X2 = 6.93; p < 0.01) compared with when counterpressing wasn’t applied. Overall, teams had greater counterpressing success against the weaker and medium ranked teams rather than higher ranked teams (p < 0.01). Future research may build machine learning models to a) classify possessions with successful counterpressing and b) attribute value to successful counterpressing performance.