Modeling health risks using neural network ensembles

Abstract

This study aims to demonstrate that demographics combined with biometrics can be used to predict obesity related chronic disease risk and produce a health risk score that outperforms body mass index (BMI)—the most commonly used biomarker for obesity. We propose training an ensemble of small neural networks to fuse demographics and biometrics inputs. The categorical outputs of the networks are then turned into a multi-dimensional risk map, which associates diverse inputs with stratified, output health risk. Our ensemble model is optimized and validated on disjoint subsets of nationally representative data (N~100,000) from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). To broaden applicability of the proposed method, we consider only non-invasive inputs that can be easily measured through modern devices. Our results show that: (a) neural networks can predict individual conditions (e.g., diabetes, hypertension) or the union of multiple (e.g., nine) health conditions; (b) Softmax model outputs can be used to stratify individual- or any-condition risk; (c) ensembles of neural networks improve generalizability; (d) multiple-input models outperform BMI (e.g., 75.1% area under the receiver operator curve for eight-input, any-condition models compared to 64.2% for BMI); (e) small neural networks are as effective as larger ones for the inference tasks considered; the proposed models are small enough that they can be expressed as human-readable equations, and they can be adapted to clinical settings to identify high-risk, undiagnosed populations.