The Elements of Water Balance in the Changing Climate in Poland

Abstract

Strong global warming has been observed in the last three decades. Central Europe, including Poland, is not an exception. Moreover, climate projections for Poland foresee further warming as well as changes in the spatial and seasonal distribution and quantity of precipitation. However, climate models do not agree on the sign of change of precipitation. In Poland precipitation is projected to decrease in summer (this finding is not robust, being model-dependent) and to increase in winter. Therefore, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding likely climate change impacts on water resources in Poland. However, there is no doubt that changes in the thermal characteristics as well as in precipitation will influence changes in the water balance of the country. In this study, the components of climatic water balance, that is, precipitation, evaporation, and runoff, are calculated for the average conditions in the control period of 1961-1990 and in the future (2071-2100) in Poland. The changes of the water balance components for the present and for the future are compared and analysed. Due to insufficient consistency between climate models a possible range of changes should be presented; hence the multimodel projections from ENSEMBLES Project of the European Union are used in this study.