Comparative Study of Markov Chain with Recurrent Neural Network for Short Term Velocity Prediction Implemented on an Embedded System

Abstract

Short-term prediction models for an ego-vehicle's speed contributes to the improvement of vehicle safety, driveability, and fuel economy. To achieve these desired outcomes, an accurate forward speed prediction model and its successful implementation in a real system is a prerequisite. This paper compares six velocity prediction models based on two types of data-driven models, a Markov chain and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), by implementing them in an embedded system to evaluate their prediction accuracy and execution time. The inputs to each model are the driving information acquired on a specific route, such as internal vehicle information, relative speed and distance to the vehicle in the front of the ego-vehicle, and ego-vehicle's location estimated by the GPS signal along with the B-spline roadway model. The proposed prediction models predict the velocity profile of the ego-vehicle up to the prediction horizon of 150 m. The parameters of the proposed models have been optimized using Hyper-parameter Optimization via Radial basis function and Dynamic coordinate search. By applying real driving data, the Markov chain-based models show slightly lower prediction accuracy but shorter execution time than those of the RNN-based models.