Research on the Policy Effects and Impact Mechanisms of the Belt and Road Initiative on China’s Forest Products Trade

Abstract

The Belt and Road Initiative, as an important measure for China in terms of opening up and participating in international economic and trade cooperation, has become a new driving force for the sustainable development of China’s forest products trade. This paper takes the Belt and Road Initiative as a policy event and evaluates its policy effects on the development of China’s forest products trade from the causal level through the difference-in-differences model (DID), explores the policy effect in detail from the perspectives of product heterogeneity and regional heterogeneity, and clarifies the specific impact mechanism. The main results are as follows: (1) there is a significant policy promotion effect of the Belt and Road Initiative on the growth of the bilateral trade scale of forest products between China and the countries along the route. (2) In terms of product structure, the policy promotion effect of the Belt and Road Initiative is mainly manifested in processed wood products. (3) In terms of regional distribution, the policy promotion effects of the Belt and Road Initiative are mainly concentrated in Europe, Africa, and Asia. (4) The “logistics performance, political partnership with China, and Internet penetration” of trading countries play a significant positive mediating role in the policy effects of the Belt and Road Initiative. Therefore, in view of the significant role of the Belt and Road Initiative in promoting the development of bilateral forest products trade, China should promote more countries to participate in the joint construction of the Belt and Road and tap new momentum for the development of the forest products trade by focusing on key countries, priority areas, and key products.